Ohio's projected long-term care needs: Implications & challenges for the Medicaid program

This study used the projected number of people in Ohio in need of Medicaid reimbursed long-term care services and examined alternatives to current pattern of long-term care utilization.

The study used the Survey of Income and Program Participants to calculate prevalence of all types of disability at the level that meets Medicaid eligibility criteria for long-term care services in Ohio. The prevalence rates were used to project the size of the population with disability and the number of people who will rely on Medicaid in the next 12 years. The public cost of long-term care services and supports is a major concern in Ohio. If the long-term care services and support consumption patterns remain the same, by 2020 the cost of Medicaid long-term care services will be about $7.5 billion (up from $4.7 in 2007) when the inflation is only 3% annually. The more likely scenario indicates that the cost of services in the long-run will increase by 6% annually, raising the total Medicaid long-term care expenditures to $11.0 billion by 2020. Given the current economic circumstances in the country and in Ohio, these additional Medicaid expenditures are not by any means practicable.

The alternatives explored in the study are the use of assisted devices and substitution of home- and community-based care for facility-based care services when it is feasible. Although Ohio has taken numerous steps in this direction by reducing reliance on facility-based care, there is much room and need to move further in this direction.