Prevalence of smoking in movies as perceived by teenagers: Longitudinal trends and predictors

Although research has shown that depictions of smoking are prevalent in contemporary movies produced in the United States, the prevalence of such depictions as perceived by teenagers has not been previously studied. In this study, we assess the longitudinal trends of the prevalence of smoking in movies as perceived by teenagers in different age cohorts in the United States, and identify the variables predicting these trends. We analyze data from 4731 12-16 year-old teenagers recruited in 2000 and 2001 and surveyed every six months until age 18 as part of the Minnesota Adolescent Community Cohort Study. We estimate a trajectory of perceived prevalence of smoking in movies in each age cohort (12-, 13-, 14-, 15-, and 16-year-olds). Potential cohort and period effects will be evaluated by comparing the predicted perceived prevalence of smoking in movies between cohorts. The prospective relationships between demographic, social and environmental factors and each trajectory will also be examined. Our results will provide insight on changes of perceived prevalence of smoking in movies during adolescence, and may call for educational and political strategies to address the potential influences of these depictions. The results will also enable us to identify sub-groups of teenagers who may be more susceptible to these depictions so that targeted interventions can be developed.