Projection of HIV/AIDS cases in children and adolescents

Background

Decreasing perinatal transmission is changing the population of children and adolescents with HIV/AIDS. In New York State (NYS) for 2006, persons ages 0-19 years comprised 4.7% of newly diagnosed HIV, 1.8% of newly diagnosed AIDS and 2.4% of living HIV/AIDS cases. This project used recent epidemiologic data for short-term projections of HIV/AIDS cases among children and adolescents in NYS.

Methods

A population simulation model was created to project HIV/AIDS prevalence in 0-19 year olds by age, sex, race/ethnicity and risk for years 2008-2014. Using the base population of 2006 and diagnosis and death data from 2001-2006, annual diagnoses and deaths were calculated for each age/sex/race/risk category and known cases were “aged” into the next year. The model produced annual estimates through 2014.

Results

In 2006 there were 2,810 reported persons 0-19 years old living with HIV/AIDS in NYS. The model projects that the 0-19 total will decline to 2,113 in 2010 and 1,431 in 2014, a net decrease of 49%. Living cases with pediatric risk continue to decrease. Teen cases with non-pediatric risk increase slowly, leading to a shift in the risk composition of the population.

Conclusions

The dominant effect seen in the model is the aging of perinatally-infected children born before measures to prevent mother to child transmission were broadly implemented in the mid- to late-1990s. Changing trends in the young HIV/AIDS infected population should be considered in developing public health programs for HIV/AIDS prevention and care for the coming years.