Roles of remote sensing and GIS in avian and pandemic influenza surveillance and risk prediction

The highly pathogenic H5N1 virus first appeared in Hong Kong in 1996. By late 2006, it has spread to 60 countries, causing outbreaks in poultry and wild birds. Approximately 250 million poultry were lost, whereas in humans there has been 407 cases and 254 deaths worldwide. Each human case increases the possibility for genetic re-assortment of the virus that in turn may lead to a pandemic. Statistically, a major pandemic appears every 100 years; and now 91 years have passed since the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, in which nearly 22 million people died. The main pathways along which avian influenza viruses may spread include legal and illegal bird and poultry trades, as well as bird migration. In a NASA Avian Influenza Risk Prediction and Pandemic Influenza Early Warning Project, we will study these transmission pathways with the following objectives: 1) perform empirical risk analyses based on outbreak history and environmental and socioeconomic information; 2) identify higher risk areas based on land cover distribution and bird migratory information; 3) model on-farm and off-farm spreads of avian influenza virus under typical environmental and socioeconomic conditions; and 4) model the incidence of influenza-like illness based on meteorological parameters. Examples and preliminary results from Southeast Asia and regions in the US will be given.