Hurricane Ike related missing persons: Identifying vulnerable populations that should be targeted during evacuation preparations

Despite mandatory hurricane evacuation orders, many people did not (or were unable to) evacuate for Hurricane Katrina. Many of them had to be rescued from the floods, and over 1,500 perished. Despite the recent memory of this disaster, when Hurricane Ike struck the Galveston area two years later, many people did not heed the evacuation orders. This study examines data on people reported missing after Hurricane Ike, to identify vulnerable populations that should be targeted during evacuation preparations. We use data from the Laura Recovery Center, which set up a website where family and friends were able to report missing persons. Available information included the city of origin and age of each missing person. Gender was determined using the persons' first name. We analyze the lists of missing persons for 5 points in time. The duration that a person remained unaccounted serves as a proxy for the extent of connectedness with friends and relatives. On October 4, 2008, 234 people were unaccounted for. Of these, only 7% were under age 20, while 65% were aged 50 and older. Of the 32 people who remain unaccounted for as of February 2009, 56% are aged 50 or older. The finding that many of the unaccounted for are middle aged, suggests that evacuation efforts need to focus not only on elderly who may have limited mobility, but also on middle aged people who may be reluctant to leave their property, or whose experience with previous hurricanes gave them a false sense of security.