211671 Challenges and statistical issues in estimating HIV incidence

Monday, November 9, 2009: 12:50 PM

Ruiguang Song, PhD , CDC, Atlanta, GA
Knowing the trends and current pattern of HIV infections is important for planning and evaluating prevention efforts and for resource allocation. However, it is difficult to estimate HIV incidence because HIV infections may not be detected or diagnosed until many years after the infection. Historically, HIV incidence was estimated based on the numbers of AIDS diagnoses and the back-calculation method. This method was no longer valid when the highly active antiretroviral therapy was introduced in 1996. This is because the therapy changes the incubation distribution by extending the period from HIV infection to AIDS diagnosis. Since then, the estimate of 40000 was used until the new estimate for 2006 was published. This presentation will tell the stories about the development of the new HIV incidence estimation methods and the statistical issues in estimating HIV incidence in the United States.

Learning Objectives:
List two challenges in estimating HIV incidence.

Presenting author's disclosure statement:

Qualified on the content I am responsible for because: Mathematical Statistician, CDC
Any relevant financial relationships? No

I agree to comply with the American Public Health Association Conflict of Interest and Commercial Support Guidelines, and to disclose to the participants any off-label or experimental uses of a commercial product or service discussed in my presentation.