Factors Predicting Individual Emergency Preparedness: A Multi-state Analysis of 2006 BRFSS Data

The threat of disasters to every individual in the United States is real and pronounced. One way to mitigate the threat disasters pose is through personal preparedness, yet numerous studies indicate that individual Americans are not prepared for large-scale disasters such as an earthquake or bioterror attack. This study attempted to evaluate factors most likely to predict individual disaster preparedness and to identify any gaps in preparedness among minority or disadvantaged sub-populations. We used 2006 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) data from the 5 states that included the optional general preparedness module. Respondents were defined as being ‘‘prepared'' if they were deficient in no more than one of the actionable preparedness measures included on the BRFSS. Analyses were conducted comparing preparedness rates based on medical and demographic factors. Using logistic regression, a predictive model was constructed to identify which factors most strongly predicted an individual's likelihood of being prepared. Factors predicting an increased likelihood of preparedness included feeling ‘‘well prepared'' (OR 9.417), having a disability or health condition requiring special equipment (OR 1.298), being 55 to 64 years old (OR 1.794), and having an annual income above $50,000 (OR 1.286). Among racial and ethnic minorities, an inability to afford medical care in the previous years (OR .581) was an important factor in predicting a decreased likelihood of being prepared. This study revealed a pervasive lack of disaster preparedness overall and a substantial gap between perceived and objective preparedness.