Justification of Investing in Alzheimer's Research and Timing to Act

Alzheimer's is a major cause of later life disability. As baby boomers age, Alzheimer's will become more prevalent and will become a painful burden for millions of families. With no treatment to stop or delay development, scientific opportunities are stalled by minimal investment in the disease. One reason for minimal Alzheimer's scientific investment is that little has been done on the cost-saving impact of Alzheimer's research. The Alzheimer's Delay Impact 2050 model simulates this potential impact of treatment research through year 2050 on the number of individuals with Alzheimer's; healthcare expenditures; and cost of drugs. The model specifically estimates return on investment of treatment breakthroughs.

Based on Census population projections, Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey expenditure data, and prevalence data, the model simulates number who die of or develop Alzheimer's; estimates transitions from lower to higher severity; and hypothesizes disease delay, costs, and savings of drug breakthroughs.

Assuming a new treatment breakthrough in 2020 with a 25% take-up rate, the model predicts that Alzheimer's will affect 10% of people over age 65. Alzheimer's spending could total $144 billion in 2020 and $702 billion in 2050 (2005 dollars), from $92 billion in 2005. However, a treatment breakthrough could result in $429 billion savings over 2020-2050, much of which would benefit Medicare.

As Alzheimer's has serious consequences for individuals, families, and healthcare systems, projections under different scenarios are important for planning the future needs of the aging population. The Alzheimer's Delay Impact 2050 can help policymakers allocate limited research resources to Alzheimer's.