Are mortality rates predicted by economic growth, unemployment rates or income inequality: An issue of market economics and social justice

The single most pervasive statistical relation in all of epidemiology is that socioeconomic status is inversely related to morbidity and mortality rates. The higher the socioeconomic status, the lower the rates of morbidity and mortality from the great majority of diagnoses. From this basic relation we may infer that the loss of socioeconomic status – especially of income or occupational position – and economic inequality would lead to increased mortality rates.

In this study a test is made of the inference that economic growth, and job growth, at the national level, are related to lower mortality rates, whereas unemployment rates and income inequality are related to higher mortality rates. This is tested among 40 industrialized countries including Western and Eastern Europe and the United States, Canada, Japan, Korea, Australia and New Zealand. This national-level study adjusts for alcohol, tobacco, animal fat and carbohydrate consumption which are risk factors in many of the chronic diseases. Also controlled are national health care expenditures. Data are derived from the WHO, World Bank and International Labor Organization. Multivariable regression analyses is used cross-sectionally and in pooled-cross-sectional (panel) analysis for the years 1990-2005. The analyses show that real economic growth is a principal predictor of mortality decline as is job growth based on self-employment (in small businesses). Unemployment and income inequality are related to higher mortality rates. Economic variables pertaining to economic growth and employment are significantly related to reduced mortality over the lifespan, whereas income inequality is significant in increased mortality from birth until age 40.