: Efficient Methods for International Program Monitoring and Evaluation: Annealing Estimators and Extensions of LQAS

Resource constrained countries must maximize positive health outcomes for minimal cost via national health programs. Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of the implementation of these programs, identifying priority areas and adjusting programs accordingly, is essential for overall success. This talk describes recent work in statistical methods that provide critical M&E data with minimal depletion of human, time, or financial resources. Annealing estimators supplement routinely collected data with small population surveys to obtain unbiased estimates of disease prevalence and program coverage with better precision than population survey data alone. Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) has precedence in supporting international M&E, and recent extensions increase the efficiency of data collection and use. Large Country-LQAS combines multistage cluster sampling and supports both local and national program management. The novel methods will be illustrated with applications in HIV and malaria program M&E in sub-Saharan Africa.