Low Hanging Fruit? Characteristics and Predictors of Former Smokers Following Comprehensive Tobacco Control Efforts in New York City

Since 2002, the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene has implemented a comprehensive tobacco control plan including taxation, legislation, education, and cessation. While adult smoking prevalence fell 27% between 2002 and 2009, from 21.5% to 15.8%, the decline has stalled in recent years. Assessing the characteristics of “recent” former smokers – adults who have quit since the tobacco control plan took effect – can help identify groups of smokers most likely to quit in response to population-based interventions. Data from the 2009 New York City Community Health Survey, an annual cross-sectional survey of about 10,000 adults, were used to examine the characteristics of smokers who quit between 2003 and 2009. The prevalence of recent former smokers was estimated for various socio-demographics, including: age, race/ethnicity, sex, borough of residence, nativity, language, income level and access to insurance. All estimates were age standardized. Most former smokers (61%) quit before 2003. Former smokers since 2003 were more likely to be between the ages of 25 and 44, low income, reside in the Bronx, Brooklyn or Staten Island, and be non-English speakers. In a multivariate regression analysis, age and race/ethnicity were the best predictors of quitting since 2003; borough of residence and access to insurance were marginal predictors. New tobacco control interventions targeting smokers less likely to have quit since 2003 (older age groups, members of specific racial/ethnic groups) could help stimulate further declines in New York City's smoking prevalence.