Developmental trajectories of alcohol use during adolescence and emerging adulthood health

Background: Adolescent alcohol use is considered a major risk factor for health in later developmental stage, although few studies captured the longitudinal relationship between patterns of drinking behavior at younger ages and later health outcomes. The purpose of this study was to identify distinctive developmental trajectories in adolescent alcohol use and to link these trajectories to emerging adulthood health. Methods: Ten waves of longitudinal data were drawn from a sample of 1,206 participants in the Midwestern Prevention Project, a community-based drug prevention program. The SAS Trajectory Procedure was used to fit a series of linear and nonlinear trajectory models. AIC and BIC criteria were employed to select the best fit model with a reasonable number of subgroups. Results: The final model suggested three distinctive developmental trajectories: group 1 with stable limited or none alcohol use, group 2 with a high initial use and a slow increase rate, and group 3 with a low initial use and a faster increase rate. Males, Whites, low SES, and those who attended public schools were more likely to be classified into either group 2 or group 3 (p<0.05). Compared to the other two groups, participants in group 3 experienced more stress during emerging adulthood (p<0.05). Participants in group 2 and 3 reported significantly poorer perceived general health than those in group 1 (p<0.05). Conclusions: Findings suggest distinctive subgroups in development of alcohol use during adolescence. Furthermore, the identified group membership was significantly associated with a number of health indicators measured in emerging adulthood.