Exploring the impacts of population growth and climate change on the Colorado River Basin's water supply

Water is an essential nutrient for life. As such, civilizations have historically flourished around rivers and waterways, or they have been limited by their lack of access to water resources. Since much of the western United States has a semi-arid climate, tapping into a reliable water source has been a fundamental challenge. For the last century, the Colorado River has been the lifeblood of the West supporting over 27 million people and three million acres of farmland, among other uses. Although the Colorado River is only the fifth largest US river in volume flow, more water is exported from the basin than any other river in the country. Research has shown the river system is already under water stress, and it will likely be sensitive to climate change impacts. Predictive models using temperature and/or carbon dioxide variables have estimated potential reductions in flow over 30%. However, a 5% reduction is expected to cause shortages that violate legal allocation agreements furthering political tensions and environmental degradation. In addition to climate change, increased demand from population growth has been identified as a water supply threat, yet, it has not been incorporated into predictive models for the Colorado River Basin. This analysis will explore both dimensions, climate change and population growth, as factors influencing future water supplies in the Colorado River Basin. Unlike past research, spatial calculations will be performed using remote sensing and GIS technologies with images obtained from MODIS, Landsat, AVHRR and GOES satellites, among other resources. Findings will be compared to current models, which only utilize climate change variables as a predictor water supply. Results are expected to provide a more sensitive measure of future water supplies in the Colorado River Basin. This could help reduce uncertainties and improve our capacity to cope with potential impacts.