Hurricane experience: A dubious force in the evacuation decision making process

Potential evacuees are often faced with extreme uncertainty and are forced to weigh many factors when making a decision to evacuate before a hurricane. Intuitively, past experience with a catastrophic hurricane should influence one's evacuation behavior. However, prior research on how that previous experience affects evacuation planning and execution is contradictory and inconclusive. This study is based on a longitudinal cohort of Gulf Coast residents who had been greatly impacted or displaced by Hurricane Katrina – a cohort who would presumably be more sensitive to evacuation orders. Within one month of Hurricane Gustav, respondents were asked about their evacuation behaviors and barriers, as well as their access to and use of transportation and sheltering alternatives. Overall, among participants living in areas under mandatory evacuation order during both hurricanes, 58.0% evacuated for Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Gustav, 26.0% did not evacuate for Hurricane Katrina but did for Hurricane Gustav, 8.8% evacuated for Hurricane Katrina but did not evacuate for Hurricane Gustav and 7.2% did not evacuate for either hurricane. Of those who evacuated for Hurricane Gustav, over 50% of respondents stated that their personal experience with Hurricane Katrina was a reason for evacuating. This analysis explores the structural, attitudinal and behavioral characteristics of this previously affected population, and explores the reasons why they did or did not adhere to the mandatory evacuation orders during Hurricane Gustav.