Comparing Self-Reported and Archival Cigarette Prices - Evidence from the US and Canada

This presentation will focus on comparisons of self-reported cigarette prices obtained in the Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey (TUS-CPS) and International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Surveys for Canada and the US (ITC) and those reported in widely used archival sources, including the Tax Burden on Tobacco (TBOT) and national consumer price indices. State-level cigarette price data constructed from the self-reported prices in the TUS-CPS are highly correlated with state cigarette excise taxes and with the data reported in the TBOT. Differences in these prices reflect the extent of cigarette company price-reducing promotions and of opportunities for tax avoidance, including cross-border shopping and cigarette purchasing on reservations, with larger differences observed in states where there are higher taxes and/or greater opportunities for tax avoidance. Similarly, average cigarette price measures constructed from self-reported cigarette price data from the ITC Canada and US surveys are highly correlated with the cigarette price components of national consumer price indices in the two countries, with differences in trends between the two measures reflecting the extent of cigarette tax avoidance and evasion. Average price measures constructed from the prices reported by smokers in representative surveys appear to be valid and reliable and are not subject to the biases that exist in archival sources for cigarette prices that do not adequately pick up cigarette company marketing efforts that reduce prices or opportunities for tax avoidance and evasion. Analyses that rely on the archival data may produce misleading conclusions about the impact of tobacco control policies.