Predictors of Violence and Delinquency among High Risk Youth and Youth Gang Members in San Salvador (El Salvador)

El Salvador is geographically the smallest and most densely populated country in the Central American region. It is currently referred to as part of the “northern triangle of violence”, the most violent region in the world (UNDOC, 2011). Although youth violence and delinquency are often identified as major problems in El Salvador, there are few studies that systematically analyze these crucial themes in this region. In addition, few studies, if any, have collected information from active youth gang members. The primary objective of this study is to estimate the relative effects of externalizing problem behavior variables and demographic variables on the rate of violence and delinquency among high risk youth and youth gang members (ages 13-24) in San Salvador. Data were collected from the first wave (2009) of an ongoing longitudinal study of youth participating in youth organizations. The data were gathered from youth residing in ten communities. Multiple logistic regression analyses were conducted with the simultaneous entry of risk factors at individual, family, school, peer, and community levels to assess the effects on violence and delinquency. Results indicated that low future orientation, low empathy, educational difficulty, school expulsion, delinquent peers, and gang membership positively predicted violence. Low future orientation, school expulsion, delinquent peers, and low social support positively predicted delinquency. Prevention and intervention programs should have a two-fold focus: specific interventions for active youth gang members and programs designed to hinder high risk youth from developing informal delinquent peer groups and joining gangs.