267556 Gentrification and its Effects on HIV/AIDS rates in DC

Monday, October 29, 2012

Tashrik Ahmed, MPH , HIV/AIDS Administration, District of Columbia Department of Health, Washington, DC
Angelique Griffin , HIV/AIDS Administration, DC Department of Health, Washington, DC
Tiffany West, MPH, MSPH , District of Columbia Department of Health, HIV/AIDS Administration, Washington, DC
Gregory Pappas, MD PhD , Senior Deputy Director, Dept. of Health, District of Columbia, Washington, DC
Objective: To assess the impact of demographic shift and gentrification in DC on HIV/AIDS rates, and discuss the importance of including gentrification covariates in public health analysis in urban centers. Methods: HIV/AIDS cases diagnosed in 2010 were sampled from surveillance data. A gentrification index was calculated using the change in median household value from 2000 to 2010. Ordinary Least Squares spatial regression was used to determine the relationship between HIV/AIDS rates in each neighborhood by gentrification index. Other explanatory variables such as mode of transmission and ethnicity were excluded from the analysis due to high levels of spatial autocorrelation. The resulting regression was a bivariate comparison between gentrification and HIV/AIDS rates. Mapping and data analysis were conducted in ArcGIS© and R™ respectively. Results: 676 cases (representing 64% of all cases in 2010) were mapped across 39 neighborhoods. The bivariate model created by Ordinary Least Squares spatial regression reported a R2 value of 32%. The correlation coefficient of r = 0.51 shows a significant positive association between gentrification and HIV rates (p<0.05). Conclusion: Approximately 31% of the variation in neighborhood rates of HIV/AIDS in DC can be explained by gentrification and demographic shift alone. Thus, gentrification is a significant factor in explaining how HIV/AIDS rates vary by neighborhood. The findings underscore the need to consider gentrification when using M&E to advise programmatic priorities to accurately how public health interventions affect new diagnoses. Next steps will involve including suburban data to track HIV/AIDS outcomes due to gentrification in the metropolitan area.

Learning Areas:
Biostatistics, economics
Conduct evaluation related to programs, research, and other areas of practice
Program planning

Learning Objectives:
1. Demonstrate how the spread of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in urban centers is being affected by gentrification. 2. Discuss how HIV/AIDS services should be offered in areas undergoing high levels of financial investment. 3. Assess the efficacy of public health interventions in the context of urban renewal and decay.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS, Geographic Information Systems

Presenting author's disclosure statement:

Qualified on the content I am responsible for because: I am an epidemiologist working with HIV/AIDS data at the HIV/AIDS, Hepatitis, STD, and Tuberculosis Administration of the DCDOH. I have been co-author on multiple other studies, and consult on NIH funded clinical trials for youth with newly diagnosed HIV.
Any relevant financial relationships? No

I agree to comply with the American Public Health Association Conflict of Interest and Commercial Support Guidelines, and to disclose to the participants any off-label or experimental uses of a commercial product or service discussed in my presentation.