272832 Health co-benefits and transportation-related reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in the San Francisco Bay Area

Tuesday, October 30, 2012 : 12:50 PM - 1:10 PM

Neil Maizlish, PhD, MPH , Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, California Department of Public Health, Richmond, CA
BACKGROUND: Greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) linked to climate change are a significant threat to public health. Automobile travel accounts for 30% of California GHGEs. Because many urban automobile trips cover short distances, increasing the share walked or bicycled could generate health benefits from increased physical activity, less air pollution, and reduced GHGEs. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this paper is to quantify potential health benefits of replacing car travel with walking and bicycling in the San Francisco Bay Area. METHODS: Descriptive statistics on travel patterns, physical activity, traffic injuries, and fine particulate matter in the San Francisco Bay Area were derived from travel and health surveys, collision databases, and outputs from models of travel demand and air pollution. A health impacts model applied these statistics to transport scenarios that from a 2% baseline would attain a combined walking and bicycling mode share of up to 15% of travel distance, corresponding to a daily median of 22 min/person by 2035. The change in disease burden was measured in premature deaths and disability adjusted life years based on epidemiologic dose–response relationships and the shift in the distributions of physical activity, particulate matter, and traffic injuries from a business as usual (BAU) scenario. RESULTS: At high levels of active transport compared to BAU, the model predicts 14% fewer premature deaths and disability for cardiovascular disease and diabetes and 5% to 10% reductions in each of four other chronic diseases – significantly improving public health and reducing health care costs. CONCLUSION: Increased physical activity associated with active transport could generate a large, net improvement in population health. Measures would be needed to minimize pedestrian and bicyclist injuries. Per capita daily minutes of active transport is a key indicator that drives health co-benefits, which, when monetized, can facilitate cost-benefit analyses and project prioritization in transportation planning.

Learning Areas:
Chronic disease management and prevention
Environmental health sciences
Epidemiology
Systems thinking models (conceptual and theoretical models), applications related to public health

Learning Objectives:
1.Participants will identify the role greenhouse gas emissions play in the transportation sector and identify the health benefits of physical activity potentially achieved from increased levels of walking and bicycling 2.Participants will identify the overall magnitude of reductions in the burden of disease and compare the contributions of physical activity, air pollution, and traffic injuries for travel scenarios with optimum levels of walking and bicycling and electrification of passenger vehicles. 3.Participants will identify the linkage between inputs of an active transport model tool and a key healthy communities indicator, and how the outputs of the model can inform decision making in transportation and land use planning

Keywords: Chronic Diseases, Physical Activity

Presenting author's disclosure statement:

Qualified on the content I am responsible for because: I am the lead epidemiologist on investigating health co-benefits of greeenhouse gas mitigation strategies at the California Department of Public Health. I have over 25 years of experience in epidemiologic and quantitative methods that were used to synthesize multiple datasets in modeling the health impacts of active transport reported in this research.
Any relevant financial relationships? No

I agree to comply with the American Public Health Association Conflict of Interest and Commercial Support Guidelines, and to disclose to the participants any off-label or experimental uses of a commercial product or service discussed in my presentation.

Back to: 4208.0: Inserting health indicators into California's climate change and regional transportation planning process