Cusp Catastrophe Modeling of Cigarette Smoking among Vocational High School Students

Evidence from diverse sources implies that many adolescent health risk behavior, including tobacco use may be quantum in nature, which challenges the traditional linear continuous analytical approach. In this study, we used cusp catastrophe, a method for characterizing quantum behaviors. Data were collected from a random sample of vocational high school students (n=553). Cigarette smoking was based on self-report, verified using a biomarker. Two controlled variables (Threat Appraisal and Coping Appraisal) based on the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) were included. Study findings indicate the superiority of cusp model to the alternative linear and logistic regression models with regard to R2 (>0.8 for cusp and <0.2 for linear and <0.25 for logistic) as well as AIC and BIC. Consistent with PMT, the Threat Appraisal (asymmetry variable, á=0.2151, p<0.01) and Coping Appraisal (bifurcation variable, â= 0.1676, p<0.01) significantly predicted past 30-day smoking after controlling for covariates. Study findings support the conclusion that adolescent smoking is a quantum process in nature and cusp catastrophe provides a useful method for analyzing this behavior.