Drinking possible self: Part of the pathway to alcohol problems in adolescents

Background: Alcohol use in adolescents is a serious public health problem. Given that future-oriented cognitions about the self (possible selves) powerfully motivate behavior and are shaped by the social environment, the purpose of this study was to determine whether having an expected possible self as a “drinker” in 8th grade mediated the effects of social influences on alcohol consumption and alcohol problems in 9th grade. Methods: A secondary data analysis from a longitudinal study of 137 adolescents during the transition from 8th to 9th grade was conducted. In the 8th grade, adolescents indicated the likelihood that “drink too much alcohol in the future” would describe them in the future. Responses were recoded into a dichotomous variable reflecting presence or absence of a “drinking” possible self, which was treated as mediator. Social influences included positive and negative self-schemas; self-esteem; family adaptability, cohesion, and structure; and social influences of parents, siblings, classmates, friends, and teachers. Gender and alcohol consumption/problems in the 8th grade were control variables. Outcomes were 9th grade alcohol level of consumption and degree of alcohol problems. Results: Path models showed that having a “drinking” possible self in the 8th grade positively predicted 9th grade alcohol problems but did not predict 9th grade alcohol consumption. Also, having a “drinking” possible self mediated the effects of negative self-schemas and self-esteem in the 8th grade on 9th grade alcohol problems. Conclusion: A “drinking” possible self is part of the pathway to alcohol problems in adolescents and may be a useful intervention target.