Online Program

Synthesizing data and subject matter expert opinion to establish simulation model input parameters: Avian influenza in poultry as an example

Tuesday, November 5, 2013 : 9:30 a.m. - 9:50 a.m.

Kelly Patyk, DVM, MPH, Monitoring and Modeling, USDA:APHIS:VS:STAS:CEAH, Fort Collins, CO
Transboundary Animal Diseases (TADs) are defined as highly contagious epidemic diseases with the potential for rapid spread across national borders causing serious socioeconomic and possibly public health consequences. Research efforts directed at understanding the transmission and control of TADs are important for disease control planning and may help prevent a widespread sustained epidemic in livestock and/or humans. Simulation models can provide an artificial but realistic representation of complex livestock and poultry systems in which to formulate and test hypotheses. They can be useful tools for response planning, especially when information regarding a disease in the region of interest is scarce or unavailable. The reliability of model outputs is highly dependent on the quality of model input parameters. Examples of disease spread model inputs include animal population information, disease epidemiology, the frequencies and distances of animal and human movements, and disease control measures. Model outputs often include information such as the numbers of animals or herd/flocks infected, mechanisms of infection, and other characteristics of disease outbreak and control. Establishing realistic model input parameters is a rigorous and iterative process involving informaticists, veterinarians, animal husbandry experts, economists, and epidemiologists. Methods of gathering and synthesizing data and expert opinion to develop realistic model input parameters will be discussed using the example of recent research simulating the spread and control of highly pathogenic avian influenza in the southeastern United States using the North American Animal Disease Spread Model.

Learning Areas:


Learning Objectives:
Explain the appropriate uses of simulation models for transboundary animal diseases. Describe the types of model inputs required to simulate the spread of transboundary animal diseases in livestock/poultry. Identify sources of information for developing model inputs for simulation of transboundary animal diseases. Discuss the process of developing disease spread model parameters using available data and expert opinion.

Keyword(s): Epidemiology, Simulation

Presenting author's disclosure statement:

Qualified on the content I am responsible for because: I am a veterinary epidemiologist with six years of experience as a modeler and analyst. I have applied epidemiologic simulation models to answer complex animal disease questions to inform response planning and policy. I have also served as a lecturer and instructor for simulation modeling courses.
Any relevant financial relationships? No

I agree to comply with the American Public Health Association Conflict of Interest and Commercial Support Guidelines, and to disclose to the participants any off-label or experimental uses of a commercial product or service discussed in my presentation.

Back to: 4072.0: Disease Outbreak Response