Cash transfers and teen pregnancy in an HIV-endemic setting: A regression discontinuity approach

Cash transfers may be an effective strategy to improve reproductive health among adolescent girls. South Africa has a generous cash welfare system, as well the world's largest HIV burden. Using longitudinal data from a large population surveillance system in rural South Africa, I assess the impact of South Africa's CSG on teenage pregnancy – an important reproductive health outcome and widely used marker of HIV risk. In recent years, South Africa has expanded eligibility for the CSG: children born on or after 1 January 1994 are eligible through age 17 years, whereas those born before 1994 lost eligibility at age 14. In regression-discontinuity models, I find that the hazard of teen pregnancy (ages 14-17 years) is 30% lower among girls in cohorts eligible for the grant. These results are robust to a wide range of specifications. Two-stage least squares estimates imply that being a grant beneficiary reduced the probability of early teen pregnancy by two-thirds. School enrollment also increased among eligible cohorts.