Nonparametric/functional contributable-risk model with the application to trend decomposition for HIV/AIDS incidence rate in rakai teenagers, Uganda
Results: We applied the methods to the Rakai Community Cohort Study from 1999-2011 for adolescent of 15 to 19 years old. Overall, 89% of the decline in HIV incidence rate in 1999-2011 is due to the decreasing proportion of sexual experienced teens, and the rest 11% is due to safer sex among sexual experienced teens. Safer sexual behavior has stronger contributions towards the decline of HIV incidence during 2000-2002 and during 2007-2008, while in other years, fewer sexually experienced teens dominates the contribution to the change of HIV incidence.
Conclusions: A new statistical method is proposed to attribute the change of an outcome to various contributors, and is promising by applying to a HIV study among Ugandan youth.
Learning Areas:Biostatistics, economics
Public health or related education
Public health or related public policy
Assess the dynamic contributions of risk factors towards the decline of HIV incidence.
Keyword(s): Adolescent Health, HIV/AIDS
Qualified on the content I am responsible for because: I am a biostatistics doctoral student working in Rakai Health Science Program. I am in charge of analyzing the data and writing the paper.
Any relevant financial relationships? No
I agree to comply with the American Public Health Association Conflict of Interest and Commercial Support Guidelines, and to disclose to the participants any off-label or experimental uses of a commercial product or service discussed in my presentation.