Projection of the growth of prevalence of diagnosed diabetes in children through 2030

Objective: To project the number of children, 0-17 years, with diagnosed diabetes in the US through 2030, accounting for changing demography, diabetes and obesity prevalence rates. Methods: Using the NHIS sample children datafiles from 1997-2011, we calculate the weighted prevalence estimates of diabetes in children by age, sex and race. Historic obesity prevalence trends for children were obtained from the NHANES. After applying the US census population projections, a times series regression model was used to forecast future diabetes prevalence and to account for the relationship between the forecasted diabetes prevalence and the lagged prevalence of obesity. Findings: Overall, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes is projected to increase 64 percent from 0.22 percent in 2010 to 0.36 percent in 2030. In terms of actual numbers, this translates to an additional 115,211 children with diagnosed diabetes in 2030. Males will continue to represent a higher proportion of children affected; and minority children will bear a disproportionate burden of the disease (0.7 percent in non-Hispanic black vs. 0.3 percent among Hispanic children vs. 0.25 among non-Hispanic white children). Results of the times series model show that for every unit increase in obesity prevalence from the previous year, there is a 0.018 percent increase in the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes in children (p<0.01). Implications: Policy makers need to address the rising diabetes prevalence in children. An aging population, coupled with a larger and less healthy youth and adolescent population portends disaster for any economy, as economic resources will be constantly transferred from the working to the non-working population.