142nd APHA Annual Meeting and Exposition

Annual Meeting Recordings are now available for purchase

307755
Projecting the local burden of Alzheimer's disease: A population-based model

142nd APHA Annual Meeting and Exposition (November 15 - November 19, 2014): http://www.apha.org/events-and-meetings/annual
Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Kimberly De Vera, BS , Emergency Medical Services, County of San Diego Health and Human Services Agency, San Diego, CA
Amelia Kenner-Brininger, MPH, CPH , Emergency Medical Services, County of San Diego, San Diego, CA
Isabel Corcos, PhD, MPH , County of San Diego, Emergency Medical Services, County of San Diego, San Diego, CA
Leslie Ray, MPH, MPPA, MA , Emergency Medical Services, County of San Diego Health and Human Services Agency, San Diego, CA
Alicia Sampson, MPH, CPH , Health & Human Services Agency, Public Health Services, County of San Diego, San Diego, CA
Ryan Smith, MPH , Emergency Medical Services, County of San Diego, San Diego, CA
Barbara M. Stepanski, MPH , Emergency Medical Services, County of San Diego Health and Human Services Agency, San Diego, CA
Joshua Smith, PhD, MPH , Emergency Medical Services, County of San Diego Health and Human Services Agency, San Diego, CA
Background: In the U.S., Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is the fifth leading cause of death for adults 65+. AD often requires constant supervision and assistance with ADLs for an average of 8-10 years after diagnosis. There are approximately 5 million Americans living with AD, which is expected to increase significantly by 2030. This will intensify the demand for supportive services such as long term care (LTC). Methods: Rates and projections through 2030 were determined using senior population estimates and AD prevalence data. Current LTC facilities data was used to project resource availability. Results: In San Diego County, there will be an estimated 89.5% increase in the number of 65+ adults living with AD from 2008 to 2030, with the Central Region having the highest percentage increase (96.0%). The number of LTC beds per 1,000 seniors with AD will decrease from 198 per 1,000 to 104 per 1,000 in San Diego County from 2008 to 2030. The North Central Region will have the highest number of seniors living with AD by 2030, and the lowest number of beds available per 1,000 seniors with AD. Conclusions: In San Diego County, the prevalence of AD in the 65+ population is increasing dramatically. Certain areas within the county will have a greater need for supportive services that address AD. This not only highlights the need for public health efforts to reduce the impact of AD, but also calls attention to the need for increasing availability of supportive services for those suffering from AD.

Learning Areas:

Other professions or practice related to public health
Public health or related research

Learning Objectives:
Identify the overall increase in the number of AD cases in San Diego County by 2030. Identify geographic regions that will have the greatest prevalence of AD by 2030. Assess whether the current supply of long-term care facilities will meet future needs for the County overall and for each geographic region.

Keyword(s): Aging, Dementia

Presenting author's disclosure statement:

Qualified on the content I am responsible for because: I have worked as an Epidemiolgy Analyst within the County of San Diego for the past two years. I am responsible for maintaining several databases within Emergency Medical Services, and I have co-authored multiple health reports. Among my interests has been the epidemiology of injury, chronic disease, and elderly health.
Any relevant financial relationships? No

I agree to comply with the American Public Health Association Conflict of Interest and Commercial Support Guidelines, and to disclose to the participants any off-label or experimental uses of a commercial product or service discussed in my presentation.