Projected Distribution of Health Insurance Coverage under the Affordable Care Act
Tuesday, November 3, 2015
A wind of change has been blowing straight into the U.S. health care system with new consideration such as the introduction of the health insurance exchange market and the expansion of Medicaid eligibility under the Affordable Care Act (ACA). In order to examine possible impacts of the ACA, this study estimates the number of US adults who would be likely to be eligible for the Medicaid expansion (EME; n=2,133) and who would be required to purchase health insurance through the health exchange market (RPIE; n=2,863). Using newly available data from the 2012 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS), we classified respondents by indicators of age, family income, household size, and insurance status. We found that 17.2% of US adults ages 27-64 were EME and 12.9% were RPIE in 2012. Of those RPIE, 18.3% were identified as required to have coverage through the insurance exchanges without federal subsidies. Compared with adults with private or publicly funded coverage, those who were uninsured and eligible for the Medicaid expansion were younger, and more likely to be Hispanic, low income, and to live in the Southern United States. The results indicate that over half of those RPIE fall into either family incomes between 133% and 199% of the federal poverty level (FPL) or above 400% FPL, and these individuals may be at risk of remaining uninsured. The Affordable Care Act is likely to have a sizable impact on uninsured US adults. We could estimate that 77.8% of those who were uninsured would be likely to have significant subsidies and would be more likely to be covered under the full ACA enactment in 2014.
Provision of health care to the public
Public health or related public policy
Public health or related research
Identify who will be likely to qualify for coverage under the ACA
List factors associated with subjects eligible for the Medicaid expansion
Keyword(s): Affordable Care Act, Health Care Reform
Presenting author's disclosure statement:
Qualified on the content I am responsible for because: At Eastern Kentucky University, I have been conducting research on the quality of care and health service satisfaction. My previous experience includes an assistant researcher in a study of the industrial safety and hygiene from Korea Occupational Safety and Health Agency (KOSHA) in South Korea in 2011. My research interest is health service quality and policy development as well as health economics.
Any relevant financial relationships? No
I agree to comply with the American Public Health Association Conflict of Interest and Commercial Support Guidelines,
and to disclose to the participants any off-label or experimental uses of a commercial product or service discussed
in my presentation.