Use of the Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) Framework to Project Climate-Related Disease Burden

Weather and climate have a wide range of impacts on human health. Climate change, which is shifting weather patterns and modifying weather extremes, will likely influence public health via multiple pathways. Some of these health impacts are already apparent. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is helping state and local health departments to anticipate the health effects of climate change by applying climate science, projecting health impacts, and implementing flexible programs through implementation of the Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) framework. Through the Climate Ready States and Cities Initiative (CRSCI), CDC is supporting 18 state and local health departments to pilot the implementation of the elements of the BRACE framework.

Step two of the five-step BRACE framework focuses on projecting disease burden. Assessing the projected health burden of climate change is an important step for public health agencies to prepare for these impacts. Disease burden projection is a complex process, and involves assessing causal pathways, assembling baseline climate and disease burden, choosing indicators, developing or utilizing an exposure-response function, and evaluating uncertainty. This can be done qualitatively or quantitatively. While quantitative projections provide more useful information about likely impacts, many health departments are not particularly familiar with scenario-based, quantitative disease projections. As part of BRACE, health agencies are able to produce estimates of the future burden of disease for climate-related health outcomes. This information can then be used to rank the health outcomes, prioritize preventive actions, and design health adaptation plans.

This presentation will give an overview of step two of the BRACE framework, describe CDC’s guidance on projecting climate-related disease burden, and give examples of implementation and best practices from CRSCI health department grantees.