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326433
Long-term health and economic benefits of obesity prevention: Projections using simulation modeling


Tuesday, November 3, 2015 : 1:45 p.m. - 2:00 p.m.

Ricardo Basurto-Davila, PhD MS, Office of Health Assessment and Epidemiology, Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, Los Angeles, CA
Irene Vidyanti, PhD, Office of Health Assessment and Epidemiology, Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, Los Angeles, CA
Julie Zissimopoulos, PhD, Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA
Background: The population aged 50 and older in Los Angeles County, California is expected to increase by over 2 million between 2010 and 2050. The largest increase is expected among minorities, which will grow from 57% to 76% of the population in this age group. As population ages, the burden of chronic conditions associated with obesity is likely to increase.

Objective: To estimate the potential long-term benefits of preventing obesity before age 50. 

Methods: We used dynamic microsimulation (Future Los Angeles Model) to project the health and health care spending of the population of Los Angeles ages 50 and older through the year 2050.  We compare the results to a scenario where obesity among new cohorts of adults was gradually reduced to 1980 levels by 2030 and then remained constant through 2050.

Results: Health outcomes were significantly better in the intervention scenario, with projected reductions in diabetes, heart disease, and high blood pressure prevalence in 2050 of 25%, 11%, and 9%, respectively. Health disparities in diabetes and heart disease narrowed as non-Hispanic Blacks and Hispanics benefited the most from reductions in obesity. Total medical expenditures in 2050 were 5.3% lower in the intervention scenario. Projected savings in total medical expenditures over the 2016-2050 period amounted to $82 billion.

Conclusions: Obesity prevention among the population of ages below 50 could lead to significant health and economic benefits at older ages. These long-term benefits should factor into decision-making regarding investments in prevention efforts.

Learning Areas:

Planning of health education strategies, interventions, and programs
Public health or related public policy
Public health or related research
Social and behavioral sciences
Systems thinking models (conceptual and theoretical models), applications related to public health

Learning Objectives:
Assess the long-term consequences of policies that reduce obesity. Compare the long-term benefits of obesity prevention across different populations.

Keyword(s): Aging, Economic Analysis

Presenting author's disclosure statement:

Qualified on the content I am responsible for because: I have been the principal investigator of this study and co-principal investigator of other similar studies. I have done research in health economics for more than five years, much of it on the areas of chronic diseases, aging, and minority populations.
Any relevant financial relationships? No

I agree to comply with the American Public Health Association Conflict of Interest and Commercial Support Guidelines, and to disclose to the participants any off-label or experimental uses of a commercial product or service discussed in my presentation.

Back to: 4201.0: Research on Minority Aging from the RCMAR Network