Association between tobacco prices and tobacco use onset-Evidence from the TCP India Survey

Background: Cheap forms of tobacco, such as chewing tobacco and bidis, and expensive forms such as cigarettes, are prevalent in India, one of the biggest tobacco users in the world.  Despite this prevalence, how cigarette prices and the prices of these cheaper tobacco forms are associated with tobacco use onset have not been studied and the evidence on the effectiveness of increasing tobacco prices in reducing tobacco use is very limited

Objective: To analyze the association between prices of cigarettes, bidis, and chewing tobaccos with tobacco use onset with any of these tobacco forms.

Methodology: The TCP India Survey by the International Tobacco Control Project contains information on the ages when tobacco users initiated the use of cigarettes, bidis, or smokeless tobaccos. Using this information, data were expanded to pseudo-panel data for duration analysis using a Discrete Time Hazard model. The prices of bidis, cigarettes, and chewing tobaccos collected for constructing Consumer Price Index during 1997-2012 were linked to the TCP India data using state and year identifiers. Logistic regressions were employed to estimate the association of these three prices with tobacco use onset.  

Results: Preliminary findings suggest that both cigarette and bidi prices significantly reduce (p≤0.01) tobacco use onset. When the prices of bidis or cigarettes were entered separately into the model, the results suggest that a 10% increase in prices is associated with a 3% reduction in the probability of tobacco use onset; when both the prices were entered to the model simultaneously, results suggest that a 10% increase in cigarette prices is associated with a 5% reduction in the probability of tobacco use onset while a 10% increase in bidi prices is associated with a 3% reduction.