Winning Twitter, but Losing the Election: Media Campaign Lessons from California's Prop 29

Background:California Proposition 29, the Tobacco Tax for Cancer Research Act, would have increased the tax on cigarettes to $1.87 per pack. Estimated to generate about 12,000 jobs and $1.9 billion in California annually, the anticipated tax revenue would have been used to fund cancer and other tobacco-related research, smoking reduction programs, and enforcement of tobacco control laws. Proposition 29 was defeated on Election Day in June, 2012.

Methods:Using 10 keyword filters, 115,619 tweets related to Proposition 29 were identified and collected from the Twitter Firehose between January and June of 2012. A total 24,432 tweets with a high relevance score (>0.8) were included for the current research. We conducted a network analysis of the users involved in Prop 29 debates on Twitter; we conducted further content and discourse analysis to study how users collaboratively promoted and (re)interpreted information and conversations.

Results:Prior to the election, 62.2% (n=10575) of tweets were supportive of Proposition 29 and 12.4% (n=2103) were oppositional. The “Yes on 29” campaign employed hashtags such as #yeson29, #stopbigtobacco, #beatcancer, and #savelives to address and promote the initiative. Major hashtags from oppositional tweets, such as #noon29, #tcot, #nonewtaxes and #boondoggle, were used to satirize, dramatize, or neutralize positive campaign messages.

Conclusion: The most prominent oppositional public opinions are characterized as resistance to new taxes and new bureaucracy as well as distrust in government accountability. Traditional media narratives still influence discourse on social media, and are diffused and reinforced by various users’ participation in the debates. Current study provides insights about the strengths and weaknesses of both the tobacco industry’s and public health advocates’ social media strategies. It also adds to the public opinion research in identifying and guiding the development of best practices for future voter initiatives in public health realm.