Online Program

Predictive Analytics can transform public health approach to West Nile Encephalitis Prevention

Tuesday, November 3, 2015 : 3:10 p.m. - 3:30 p.m.

Raed Mansour, MS, Chicago Department of Public Health, City of Chicago, Chicago, IL
Jay Bhatt, DO MPH MPA, Department of Internal Medicine, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL
Since 2004, the City of Chicago has had a comprehensive surveillance and control program to address West Nile virus (WNV). Environmental surveillance has included: the collection of mosquitoes from traps located throughout the city; the identification and sorting of mosquitoes collected from these traps; and the testing of specific species of mosquitoes for WNV. Environmental control measures have included targeted adulticiding efforts.

This project will identify factors associated with the presence of West Nile virus (WNV) in mosquitoes and determine the effectiveness of mosquito control measures. Information gained will help the City of Chicago better target its surveillance, prevention and control efforts

An open competition to determine the best model is being planned by Kaggle who will be hosting the competition in partnership with Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and CDPH. CDPH will provide data and technical support. There will be 8 years of public health data incorporated into the model that will be tested and potentially incorporated into business practice. 

The model will be ready by May 2015 and results available by September 2015 from testing the model during summer season. 

 Data Sources

1. Zoonotic Disease Tracker. Zoonotic Disease Tracker (ZDT) records all environmental surveillance data as well as well as data gathered to determine the effectiveness of larvaciding efforts. There are 100,000 records and 72,000 records of adulticiding data.

2. Other data. The City of Chicago has contracted with a vendor (Vector Disease Control International (VDCI)) to provide consultation on environmental surveillance and control measures and to conduct adulticiding efforts. VDCI has also recorded the where adulticiding has occurred.

Goals include:

1. Identify geographic and climatologic-related risk factors associated with the presence of West Nile virus (WNV)-positive mosquito pools;

2. Determine the effectiveness of adulticiding efforts in reducing WNV-positive mosquito pools.

3. Create an open source model replicable for other cities to use

Learning Areas:

Administration, management, leadership
Other professions or practice related to public health
Protection of the public in relation to communicable diseases including prevention or control

Learning Objectives:
Demonstrate how to translate predictive analytics to public health problems Discuss using analytics to make smarter use of resources Define advancing innovation within constraints of government Demonstrate collaborating with partners to build public health capability and sustainability

Keyword(s): Water & Health, West Nile Encephalitis

Presenting author's disclosure statement:

Qualified on the content I am responsible for because: I lead innovation projects at the City of Chicago Department of Public Health, including capacity and sustainability building; moving projects from proof of concept to operationalizing models to improve public health practice.
Any relevant financial relationships? No

I agree to comply with the American Public Health Association Conflict of Interest and Commercial Support Guidelines, and to disclose to the participants any off-label or experimental uses of a commercial product or service discussed in my presentation.