Transparent communications in Epidemics: Learning Lessons from experience, delivering effective Messages, providing Evidence (TELL ME) Simulation Model

Background:  TELL ME, a 36-month collaborative research project, aims to provide evidence and develop models for improved risk communication during epidemics.  The European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme funded 12 partners, 10 from the EU, and one each from the US and Israel.  TELL ME work products include a Simulation Model that is an agent-based social simulation prototype for communications during epidemics.

Methods:  The model implementation is an agent-based model for protective behavior such as hand-washing or vaccination, connected with the standard SEIR mathematical epidemic model with a two-way connection between behavior and epidemic.  Inputs consist of communication messages and epidemic features and outputs consist of communication effects and epidemic progress

Results:  A prototype agent-based simulation model providing guidance about effectiveness of communication plans before, during and after an influenza epidemic, and validation and refinement of the model through expert panels in the EU and US.  The model is unique in that it links three inherently connected components of  an epidemic:  communication, personal behavior and epidemic progress.

Conclusions:  The TELL ME prototype simulation model may enhance advantages of effective risk communications for infectious disease epidemics and pandemics and minimize risks of “adverse effects” during outbreaks.  As the model evolves, it may have implications for such infectious disease outbreaks as the recent Ebola Virus in West Africa and the current measles outbreak in the US.