Abstract

A comparative cost-benefit analysis of gun violence prevention policies: Mandatory school lockdown drills and voluntary and mandatory gun buyback programs

Angana Roy, MPH and Richard Krop, PhD
The Cadmus Group, Inc., Santa Monica, CA

APHA's 2018 Annual Meeting & Expo (Nov. 10 - Nov. 14)

Objective: This session presents the results of a cost-benefit analysis that compares the costs and benefits of school lockdown drills to local gun buyback programs and a theoretical federal buyback program. Background: There has been an increase in mandatory lockdown drills in schools nationally from 1999-2017. Currently, 32 states require school lockdown drills, but these drills can be expensive additions to state education budgets. Local gun buyback programs are similarly expensive and evidence suggests neither lockdown drills nor local buyback programs are very effective. By contrast, international comparisons between the U.S. and Australia provide evidence for the effectiveness of mandatory national gun buyback programs despite the high estimated costs. Methods: This analysis compares statewide mandatory school lockdown drills in California to results from local voluntary gun buyback programs in Los Angeles and Camden and a hypothetical federal buyback program in the U.S. modeled on the mandatory buyback program enacted in Australia. All 3 policies are examined under different assumed levels of effectiveness: high, moderate, and low. Results: Preliminary results indicate that lockdown drills have an approximate cost of $6.6 million - $26.4 million per life saved. Local voluntary buyback programs have an approximate cost of $75,000 - $200,000 per life saved. A mandatory national buyback program has an approximate cost of $10,000 - $30,000 per life saved. Discussion: Gun buyback policies are likely to cost less per life saved than mandatory lockdown drills. Despite the political obstacles, a mandatory national buyback program would likely be the most cost-effective way to prevent gun deaths.

Conduct evaluation related to programs, research, and other areas of practice Implementation of health education strategies, interventions and programs Systems thinking models (conceptual and theoretical models), applications related to public health