Abstract
Does stay at home orders and cloth face coverings control COVID-19 in New York City?
Wenjie Sun1, Jian Li2, Jing Wu3 and Michelle Gamber, MA, MPH, DrPH4
(1)Florida International University, Miami, FL, (2)New Orleans, LA, (3)Shanghai, China, (4)Shenandoah University, Winchester, VA
APHA's 2020 VIRTUAL Annual Meeting and Expo (Oct. 24 - 28)
Background: Public health interventions have been implemented to contain the outbreak of COVID-19 in New York City. However, the assessment of those interventions, e.g. social distancing, cloth face covering based on the real-world data from filed study is lacking. Methods: The SEIR compartmental model was used to evaluate the social distancing and cloth face covering effect on the daily culminative laboratory confirmed cases in NYC, and COVID-19 transmissibility. The latter was measured by Rt reproduction numbers in three phases which were based on two interventions in implemented in the timeline. Also, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to test the stability of the modeling under a series of scenario to predict intervention effects. Results: From phases 1 to 3, slopes of cumulative confirmed cases decreased, indicating the increase in infection rate significantly declined (p < 0.05). The transmissibility also decreased from phase 1 to phase 3. The Initial, R0 was 4.60 in Phase 1 without any intervention. After social distancing, the Rt value was reduced by 68%, while after the mask recommendation, it was further reduced by ~60%. Interventions resulted in significant reduction of confirmed case numbers, relative to predicted values based on SEIR model without intervention. Conclusion: Our findings highlight the effectiveness of social distancing and cloth face coverings in slowing down the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in NYC. Implementation of those interventions may be powerful tools for preventing spread of respiratory infectious diseases such as COVID-19 in the future.
Administer health education strategies, interventions and programs Basic medical science applied in public health Epidemiology Planning of health education strategies, interventions, and programs Public health or related public policy Public health or related research