Abstract
Patterns of COVID-19 Rates Across the World in 2020 and 2021
APHA 2022 Annual Meeting and Expo
Introduction: COVID-19’s impact may lead to a spike in mortality rate and economy fluctuation of a geographical location, thereby influencing the life expectancy of the location. We examined the total deaths due to COVID-19 and factors that predicted it worldwide.
Purpose: This research examines whether the impact of COVID-19 and other variables (in combination) is associated with life expectancy across the world. We compare the association between incidence rates and mortality rates by continent and location, and describe why GDP and Stringency are significant moderators, using longitudinal data.
Methods: Secondary data were obtained from an online COVID-19 databank platform, Github (ourworldindata.org) comprising 196 countries across 7 continents in the year 2020 and 2021 (79,384 observations). We determined correlations and significance, using the generalized estimating equations (GEE) model and Pearson’s correlation procedures. SAS Studio was used for the analysis.
Results: In the African continent, of the 5 predictors analyzed for their impacts on life expectancy, only gross domestic product (GDP) was significant (p = 0.0006), whereas in other continents, more than one parameter was significant. For example, in Asia, GDP and disease comorbidity were significant (p= 0.0006 and p = 0.0002), respectively. Incidence rates and mortality due to COVID-19 are positively correlated, p <0.0001.
Conclusion: One or more independent parameters are significantly associated with the fluctuation in life expectancy and COVID-19 mortality across continents. Country-specific mitigation policies could play a more significant role than GDP.