Abstract

Examining rural-urban differences in HIV and HIV-related mortality rates in the U.S.: a longitudinal analysis of data from 1999 to 2020

Tamara Jimah, PhD, Syamak Moattari, MD, Dr.PH, Kavya Vytla and Nasim Ferdows, PhD
Northeastern University, Boston, MA

APHA 2025 Annual Meeting and Expo

Background: HIV remains a major public health concern in the U.S., affecting over a million people. Persistent geographic disparities in HIV services place rural populations at a disadvantage, leading to delayed diagnosis, limited treatment access, and higher mortality risk. The objective of this study was to examine long-term trends in HIV and HIV-related (HHR) mortality and assess growing rural-urban disparities.

Methods: We analyzed data from the CDC WONDER Underlying Cause of Death dataset (1999 -2020), identifying HHR deaths using ICD-10 codes B20-B24 and related conditions among individuals ≥15 years. Mortality trends were stratified by the six-level urban-rural classification. Crude and age-adjusted mortality rates (per 100,000) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using the 2000 U.S. Standard Population across the 69,234 county-year observations.

Results: In 1999, large central metro (urban) counties exhibited the highest crude and age-adjusted mortality rates (26.3 per 100,000), declining to 9.9 by 2020. In contrast, noncore (rural) counties saw a smaller decline, from 15.5 to 9.6 per 100,000. Crude rates declined from 24.8 to 8.9 in large central metros and from 17.0 to 11.8 in noncore counties. Despite overall national declines, reductions were slower in rural areas. Notably, the southern states exhibited persistently higher HHR compared to other regions, with several southern states consistently in the top percentiles for mortality throughout the study period.

Conclusions: Although HHR mortality declined nationwide, rural areas continue to bear a disproportionate burden. Addressing these disparities will require expanded rural HIV services, stigma reduction, and tailored interventions targeting structurally underserved communities.

Epidemiology Protection of the public in relation to communicable diseases including prevention or control Provision of health care to the public Public health or related public policy Public health or related research