4132.0: Tuesday, November 14, 2000 - Board 7

Abstract #12396

Capture-recapture method to estimate prevalence of HIV in Argentine women

F. Anne Eades, BSMT1, Raul Mercer, MD, MPH2, and Jodi Lapidus, PhD1. (1) Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Oregon Health Sciences University, 3181 SW Sam Jackson Park Rd. CB-669, Portland, OR 97201, (503)413-7053, aeades@lhs.org, (2) Programa Materno y Infantil, Ministerio de Salud, La Plata, Argentina

HIV is a growing concern in Latin American countries, especially as it relates to women and children. While estimates of the number of AIDS cases in these countries exist, widely accepted estimates of HIV cases do not. In this study capture-recapture methods were used along with log linear modeling to estimate the number of HIV positive women in the Buenos Aires Province of Argentina. Three types of data sources were used: hospital records; a combined source of blood bank and public health lab records; and social service agencies’ records. High quality data with unique identifiers was available from all of the sources, and all had data for a minimum of ten years. For the ten year period from 1989 to 1998 approximately 1600 cases of individual HIV+ women were identified. There were crossovers for all data sources, with only one case crossing all three sources. The estimate of the number of total HIV positive women using this methodology is approximately 4500. Capture-recapture methods offer an efficient and relatively quick method to gather data from existing information sources and estimate affected populations. It also provides a means to assess undercount and adjust rates accordingly. Public health officials can use this information to encourage physicians to test and treat pregnant women. Ultimately, this can prevent many cases of HIV in Argentina’s children.

Learning Objectives: 1. Assess the magnitude of HIV prevalence in women of the Buenos Aires Province. 2. Discuss the principles of capture-recapture methodology. 3. List several potential benefits of accurate prevalence rates

Keywords: HIV/AIDS, Latin American

Presenting author's disclosure statement:
Organization/institution whose products or services will be discussed: None
I do not have any significant financial interest/arrangement or affiliation with any organization/institution whose products or services are being discussed in this session.

The 128th Annual Meeting of APHA