5184.0: Wednesday, November 15, 2000 - 3:15 PM

Abstract #12523

Predictive epidemiologic model of the household vector's infection rate to T. cruzi for the Chagas' Control Program in Venezuela

Manuel Bayona, MD, PhD1, Marco P. Marruffo, MD, MS2, Dario Gonzalez-Santana, MD, MS2, Paul García, MD, MS2, and Erick L. Suarez-Perez, MS, PhD3. (1) Health Professions Division, Public Health Program, College of Allied Health, Nova Southeastern University, 3200 S. University Drive, Fort Lauderdale, FL 33328, (954) 262 - 1612, mbayona@hpd.nova.edu, (2) Ministry of Health of Venezuela, School of Malariology, Carabobo University, Venezuela, (3) School of Public Health, University of Puerto Rico, Rio Piedras, Puerto RIco

Chagas' disease incidence, vector's T. cruzi infection rates, and vector's household infestation have been reduced considerably in Venezuela. However, in some states such as Barinas and Portuguesa, household R. prolixus infestation index and vector's T. cruzi infection rates still remain higher than 2.9 per 100 houses and 3.4 per 100 vectors respectively. Since the success of the program has not been uniform,it was important to develop a predictive model to estimate expected values of the endemic process. Comparing the epidemiological data obtained by the control program with the model generated expected values, it is possible to better assess the success of the program. The purpose of this project was to develop a model to evaluate more objectively the achievements of the Chagas' disease control program. After analysis of 10 years data from the control program with regression techniques and by using an ecological design, both a linear and a Poisson based epidemiologic models were developed and successfully tested to assess the relationship among indexes. These models also provide predictive values of household infestation. The results of this project are very timely because Chagas' disease is an illness related to the presence of vector's breeding sites in poor housing conditions and overcrowding. Unfortunately these two elements are worsening after the pluvial disaster of December 1999, and control program activities will have to be intensified.

Learning Objectives: 1. Describe the overall epidemiology of Chagas' disease. 2. Identify selected means to develop epidemiologic predictive models for control programs

Keywords: Epidemiology, Biostatistics

Presenting author's disclosure statement:
Organization/institution whose products or services will be discussed: None
I do not have any significant financial interest/arrangement or affiliation with any organization/institution whose products or services are being discussed in this session.

The 128th Annual Meeting of APHA