As a result of high levels of HIV prevalence and reduced total fertility rates, Botswana, South Africa and Zimbabwe will soon be experiencing negative population growth. As of the year 2000, female population in Zimbabwe has already started to decline. In countries with high levels of HIV prevalence, AIDS mortality will have major demographic impacts on populations. Crude death rates will increase significantly in those countries. An estimated 39 percent of all children born to HIV infected mothers will themselves become HIV positive resulting in increasing infant mortality rates. Growth rates are projected to remain positive for most countries except in Botswana, South Africa and Zimbabwe, countries with both low fertility rates and high HIV prevalence. Since 1994, the U.S. Census Bureau has incorporated the impact of HIV/AIDS mortality in the population projections prepared for the Bureau's World Population Profile. With each biennial revision, additional refinements and additional epidemiological data are incorporated into the methodology and input data. In the 2000 revision, HIV/AIDS mortality is incorporated explicitly into the projections for 34 countries, including 26 in Africa, 5 in Latin America and the Caribbean, and 3 in Asia. This paper describes the epidemiological background of the status and trends in HIV/AIDS epidemics in Sub-Saharan Africa. We will focus on the devastating impacts that are estimated to occur particularly in Botswana, South Africa and Zimbabwe. Population growth, infant mortality, and life expectancies are compared under AIDS and non-AIDS scenarios.
Learning Objectives: Participants in this session will be able to identify the impacts of HIV/AIDS Epidemics on population; will be able to list the most severly affected demographic indicators; and will be able to identify components of development programs that may be impacted by the HIV/AIDS epidemics
Keywords: HIV/AIDS, Population
Presenting author's disclosure statement:
Organization/institution whose products or services will be discussed: US Census Bureau
I do not have any significant financial interest/arrangement or affiliation with any organization/institution whose products or services are being discussed in this session.