BACKGROUND Research has shown that gun availability, often measured in survey data as household ownership or based on annual guns manufactured, is associated with an increased risk of firearm-related mortality. We have recently obtained handgun purchase data for California, however, which yields a direct measure of handgun ownership. The goal of this ecological study is to compare the change in firearm-related mortality with the change in legal handgun purchases in California and the state’s ten largest counties, 1980-1998.
METHODS Handgun purchases were identified using Automated Firearm Systems data obtained from the California Department of Justice. A time series analysis was performed using a regression model which included handgun purchases at various lag times prior to firearm mortality. An autocorrelation function was included in the model. Stratified analysis by county and age group was conducted.
RESULTS Preliminary analysis identified 5,436,072 legal handguns purchased during the study period; 286,109 average annual purchases. Purchases were correlated with both total firearm-related mortality and firearm homicide during the time period in California. We are continuing the exploration of the relationship between handgun purchases and firearm deaths in counties and among age groups.
CONCLUSIONS This study represents an innovative approach to the evaluation of the effect of firearm purchases on firearm mortality; availability of this data allowed for the assessment of state-wide and regional time trends. The results will aid in the development of relevant policy and violence prevention strategies and point to further research examining correlations within high risk population
Learning Objectives: Learning objectives: At the conclusion of the session, the participant will be able to: 1. Identify the distribution by age group of handgun purchases and firearm-related mortality in California and in the state’s ten largest counties during 1980-1998. 2. Describe the relationship between handgun purchases at various lag times and firearm suicide, homicide, and total firearm-related deaths over the time period in California and in the state’s ten largest counties. 3. Recognize the need for improved documentation and standardization of firearm reporting mechanisms as well as the implication for the development of violence prevention strategies emphasizing weapon control
Keywords: Firearms, Mortality
Presenting author's disclosure statement:
Organization/institution whose products or services will be discussed: None
I do not have any significant financial interest/arrangement or affiliation with any organization/institution whose products or services are being discussed in this session.