Background: Projections of physician surplus or shortage long have received much attention, but often have proved mistaken. Analysis of our recent empirical studies shows why reliable projection is not possible.
Methods: We constructed projection models for the two specialties our organization encompasses, using for the input parameters documentedly-stable values taken from our initial empirical studies and earlier data sources. Annually, we conducted three surveys. Using data from the latest surveys, we reran the models.
Results: Initial model runs predicted a surplus, with physician work output annually increasing >1% more than need/demand. Later surveys showed large changes in the input parameters from previously-stable values. For example, historically, the number of workforce leavers fitted our model of a constant labor force participation rate in each age category, but subsequently the number in one specialty (but not the other) approximately doubled. Most recently, the models predict a shortage growing approximately 1½ % annually.
Discussion: Analysis of our findings shows major changes in the input parameters occur and are not predictable. For example: (1) Workforce leaving presumably increased in response to the run-up in equity valuations in the 1990s. This was, even in principle, not predictable, for asset pricing models indicate that any information about the future gets fully factored into current prices. (2) The number of training slots available to those desiring to enter the specialist workforce changed in response to changing strength of beliefs that America should produce more primary care physicians. The strength of these beliefs may change in the future.
Learning Objectives: 1. Participants will learn why correct projections can not be made. 2. Participants will be able to identify major types of information relevant to the physician employment market that can be obtained from surveys of graduates, training program directors, and physician groups
Keywords: Physicians, Workforce
Presenting author's disclosure statement:
Organization/institution whose products or services will be discussed: None
I do not have any significant financial interest/arrangement or affiliation with any organization/institution whose products or services are being discussed in this session.