Much research has documented that youthful substance use typically follows a progression starting with alcohol and/or tobacco use and potentially leading to marijuana and then hard drugs, but has not provided estimates of the risks of progessing at each stage. This paper employs the National Household Survey on Drug Abuse to carefully estimate these probabilities their covariates.
The results indicate that the gateway stages essentially emerged with the baby boom and that the probabilities of progression subsequently declined. The recent increase in youthful marijuana use of the 1990s has NOT been accompanied by extensive progression to cocaine powder, crack or heroin.
These findings seriously question the dire predictions expressed by some of future hard drug abuse by youths coming of age in the 1990s. The authors suggest that the most mechanistic interpretation of the gateway theory is no longer relevant, and that a more nuanced understanding of prevailing drug use trends and their social context is essential to helping youths develop healthy and productive lifestyles.
Learning Objectives: The gateway theory is a well articulated model for the stages of adolescent substance use. Attendees to this session will most likely be aware of its structure, though that is not required to understand the presentation. At the conclusion of the presentation, attendees should be able to: 1.Articulate the gateway theory 2. Describe the subtlety in interpreting the significance of this model for public policy formation. 3. Appreciate the various biases making it difficult to measure the probability of progressing from one stage to the next using cross -sectional data such as obtained from the national Household Survey on Drug Abuse. 4. Understand the procedure employed in the presentation for estimating the probability of progression from each stage and its covariates. 5. Realize the need for more subtle theories that account for major variations across generations and the role for continued monitoring of the nature of the stages and probability of progression prevailing through adolescents
Keywords: Adolescents, Substance Abuse Prevention
Presenting author's disclosure statement:
Organization/institution whose products or services will be discussed: None
I do not have any significant financial interest/arrangement or affiliation with any organization/institution whose products or services are being discussed in this session.