3116.0: Monday, November 13, 2000 - Table 1

Abstract #3091

Empirical estimates of secondary HIV transmission rates

Steven D. Pinkerton, PhD1, Paul R. Abramson, PhD2, Seth C. Kalichman, PhD1, Ana P. Johnson-Masotti, PhD1, and Sheryl L. Catz, PhD1. (1) Center for AIDS Intervention Research, Medical College of Wisconsin, 2071 N. Summit Ave, Milwaukee, WI 53202, 414-456-7762, pinkrton@mcw.edu, (2) Department of Psychology, UCLA, 405 Hilgard Ave, Los Angeles, CA 90024

We used a mathematical model of HIV transmission to estimate the number of infections expected among the sex partners of already infected individuals (“the secondary transmission rate”) for a sample of 208 HIV-positive men and 128 HIV-positive women in Atlanta, based on their self-reported sexual behavior, extrapolated over a 15-year horizon. Separate rates were calculated for different transmission routes, including: from women to men-who-have-sex-with-women and from men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) to other MSM. For participants that reported transmission risk behaviors, the mean number of secondary infections was 0.14 among male partners of women; 0.31 among female partners of men; and 0.84 for male partners of other men. Partners of bisexual men were at especially high risk, with 1.59 and 0.54 secondary infections, respectively, expected among the male and female partners of bisexual men. Thus, for all groups other than bisexual men, each current infection is expected to lead to fewer than one new infection in the next 15 years. This suggests that the epidemic is contracting in this community, although we cannot rule out the possibility of a growing epidemic among MSM. This method can be used to identify groups at high risk for HIV transmission.

Learning Objectives: At the conclusion of the session, audience members will better understand the link between sexual behaviors and HIV transmission risk among HIV-infected persons

Keywords: Risky Behaviors, HIV/AIDS

Presenting author's disclosure statement:
Organization/institution whose products or services will be discussed: none
I do not have any significant financial interest/arrangement or affiliation with any organization/institution whose products or services are being discussed in this session.

The 128th Annual Meeting of APHA