This study used combined synthetic/regression methods to estimate the prevalence of current smoking and smoking initiation among Canadian youth. Logistic regression was used to relate socio-demographic predictors to the occurrence of the smoking indicators among youth (15-24 years) in the 1994/95 National Population Health Survey (NPHS). Models were then applied to provincial youth populations in the 1996/97 NPHS and the 1996 Census of Canada. Model-generated estimates were compared with direct estimates that were obtained from NPHS data. The models accurately predicted provincial rates of current, youth smoking for 1994/95. When applied to the 1996/97 NPHS, the current smoking models performed reasonably well, but were less predictive when applied to 1996 Census data. Modeling of youth smoking initiation was not successful. This suggests that while simple estimation models of youth smoking can be derived, these models may not be portable across different populations and/or time periods.
Learning Objectives: 1. Participants will be able to identify the rationale in using small area estimation with regard to youth smoking behaviors. 2. Participants will be able to describe a procedure to carry out small area estimation using population health data. 3. Participants will be able to assess the appropriateness of conducting small area estimation of youth smoking behaviours using socio-demographic predictor variables. 4. Participants will learn about provincial variations in youth smoking behaviours within Canada
Keywords: Smoking, Tobacco Control
Presenting author's disclosure statement:
Organization/institution whose products or services will be discussed: None
I do not have any significant financial interest/arrangement or affiliation with any organization/institution whose products or services are being discussed in this session.