Background: Motor vehicle collisions are ubiquitous in modern society. The consequences of motor vehicle collisions range from mild injuries to fatalities. This study investigates factors as predictor variables that lead to death or serious injury from motor vehicle collisions.
Methods: Data for this study consisted of motor vehicle collision records from San Diego County for fiscal years 95-96 and 96-97. The data from 95-96 described 30,346 motor vehicle collisions with 2,021 involving a death or serious injury. There were slightly fewer collisions in 96-97 (28,942), with 1,885 resulting in death or serious injury. Five factors were evaluated as predictors of death and serious injury. These factors were: type of traffic violation, time of the day, gender, age of the party, and alcohol use. These relationships were explored using a logistic regression analysis with the terms of the equation selected by using a backwards stepwise regression model using data from 95-96.
Results: The model included all five of the factors above and the following interactions: gender by violation, age by type of violation, age by gender, age by alcohol, and time by age. The parameters of the model were then estimated and evaluated using data from 96-97. The factors: type of violation, age, alcohol use, and time of day were all statistically significant in the cross validation as well as the interaction between alcohol use and age.
Conclusions: Determining predictor variables for motor vehicle collisions can help direct prevention interventions toward those areas and reduce serious injuries and deaths.
Learning Objectives: 1. State factors evaluated as predictors of death and serious injury in motor vehicle related collisions. 2. Articulate the procedure for assessing predictor variables as risk factors for death or serious injury secondary to motor vehicle related collisions. 3. Describe prevention measures that target populations at risk for death and serious injury from motor vehicle collisions
Keywords: Motor Vehicles, Alcohol Use
Presenting author's disclosure statement:
Organization/institution whose products or services will be discussed: None
I do not have any significant financial interest/arrangement or affiliation with any organization/institution whose products or services are being discussed in this session.