One half of 1% of all federal firearm licensees account for more than half of all crime gun traces submitted to the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms. However, it is not known whether a large number of crime gun traces simply reflects a large sales volume, or suggests that a licensee is involved in diverting guns to the criminal market, or both. For handguns, and for California holders of federal firearms licenses, we will test the hypothesis that trace frequency is a direct function of sales volume only and is not related to other factors. The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms has provided a licensee-specific tabulation of crime handgun traces for 1997-1999. California has provided sales data for 1996-1999. We will model licensee's trace frequency in a given year as a function of their average sales volume for that year and the year previously. The main outcome measure will be the "crime handgun trace ratio," the number of handguns traced divided by the average sales volume. Sales volume, licensee type (dealer versus pawn broker), location (urban versus rural), and type of handguns sold will be explored as covariates. We will also determine whether dealers with a high crime handgun trace ratio have other attributes suggestive of scofflaw behavior: a shorter time to crime (time elapsed between handgun sale and handgun use in crime), failure to obtain a required state license, residential location, failure to report multiple handgun sales, and others.
Learning Objectives: At the conclusion of this presentation, participants will: know whether frequent crime gun traces to individual federal firearm licensees is a simple reflection of sales volume; know what other factors affect the ratio between number of crime guns traced and number of guns sold; know the major implications of these findings for public policy
Keywords: Firearms, Violence
Presenting author's disclosure statement:
Organization/institution whose products or services will be discussed: None
I do not have any significant financial interest/arrangement or affiliation with any organization/institution whose products or services are being discussed in this session.