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American Public Health Association
133rd Annual Meeting & Exposition
December 10-14, 2005
Philadelphia, PA
APHA 2005
 
4124.0: Tuesday, December 13, 2005 - 12:30 PM

Abstract #99894

Modeling future public health reportable disease patterns based upon previously observed reports

Larry Garrett, BSN, MPH, Kansas Integrated Public Health System Project, 650 North 670 East, American Fork, UT 84003, 801-492-1936, lgarrett@kiphs.com

Disease surveillance is a core function of public health. However, the timely detection of outbreaks and/or an intentional release of a biologic agent is difficult unless disease baselines are established and methods developed to identify unusual disease events within a defined population. The rapid identification of adverse disease events within a population may increase the usefulness of public health interventions.

A review of Kansas Reportable Disease data for the years 2000-2003 has been completed. The project's emphasis was on developing methods to predict future disease burden based upon previously observed patterns. In addition, baseline measurements were established to support these activities. Key results of this project include: 1) Methodology established for future reportable disease projections activities by Kansas Department of Health and Environment, 2) Comparative rates and disease counts calculated for all KS counties, 3) “Trigger” points established to activate additional surveillance activities by disease groupings, 4) Methodology established to control for outlier and outbreak related data; this is necessary to assure the accuracy of future projections, 5) Identification of specific counties in KS where additional resources may be necessary to strengthen disease surveillance activities, and 5) Establishment of baseline data upon which future projections will be based.

Each of the above finding and/or results will be discussed with an emphasis placed upon replication of this project for other jurisdictions.

Learning Objectives: At the conclusion of this session, the participant (learner) in this session will be able to

Keywords: Surveillance, Disease Data

Presenting author's disclosure statement:

I wish to disclose that I have NO financial interests or other relationship with the manufactures of commercial products, suppliers of commercial services or commertial supporters WITH THE EXCEPTION OF I am an employee of KIPHS, Inc..

Surveillance Issues and Methodology

The 133rd Annual Meeting & Exposition (December 10-14, 2005) of APHA