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APHA Scientific Session and Event Listing

Recorded presentation

Michael Huerta, MD, MPH¹, Salman Zarka, MD, MPH², Haim Bibi, MD³, Jacob Haviv¹, Shimon Scharf¹, and Michael Gdalevich⁴. (1) Ben Gurion University - Barzilai Medical Center Campus, Ashkelon District Health Office, Ashkelon, 78306, Israel, +972-8-6745153, mhuerta@netvision.net.il, (2) Army Health Branch and Haifa University School of Public Health, Medical Corps, IDF and Haifa University, 02149, Tel Hashomer, Israel, (3) Carmel Medical Center, Department of Pediatrics, Haifa, Israel, (4) Tel Aviv University; Sackler Medical School, Barzilai Medical Center, Ashkelon District Health Office, Ashkelon, 78306, Israel

Background: Identification of children at risk for overweight in early adulthood is important for targeting intervention. Although the US CDC has recently published updated cutoff points for childhood adiposity classifications, uncertainty remains as to the validity of these references in populations outside the US. Objective: To assess the validity of CDC childhood adiposity classifications in predicting adolescent overweight and obesity among Israeli youth. Methods: 3,163 subjects were surveyed first at age 8-15 and again at age 16-19, after a mean follow-up of 6.0±1.6 years. We calculated correlation coefficients between childhood and adolescent BMI measurements, and the sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of childhood adiposity classification. Finally, we determined the area under ROC curves for childhood and adolescent classifications. Results: Correlation coefficients increased with age at first measurement, and were higher in girls than in boys. Childhood overweight and obesity had mid-range sensitivities and high specificities for predicting adolescent overweight. Negative predictive values were consistently high (84-99%) in both sexes at all ages. Adolescent obesity was best predicted by childhood overweight, showing the greatest area under the ROC curve. The risk for adolescent overweight was substantially higher in overweight and obese children than in children with normal range BMI (OR[95%CI] 17.7[14.1,22.3] and 31.7[19.7,50.9], respectively). Conclusion: Childhood overweight and obesity as defined by CDC reference values are strong predictors of adolescent overweight and obesity among Israeli youth. In this study population, children of normal weight were at a very low risk of overweight and obesity during adolescence.

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