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Leslie Robin Halpern, MD, DDS, PhD, MPH1, Blair Parry, CCRC, BA2, and Thomas Benton Dodson, DMD, MPH1. (1) Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Massachusetts General Hospital, Warren 1201, 55 Fruit Street, Boston, MA 02114, 617-726-8222, lhalpern1@partners.org, (2) Emergency Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, 55 Fruit Street, Boston, MA 02114
Purpose: To develop and validate a predictive model to identify women reporting intimate partner violence (IPV)-related injuries. Materials and Methods: Using a cross-sectional study design, we enrolled women > 18 years presenting for treatment of injuries. The sample was randomized into an index and validation datasets. The index dataset was used to develop a predictive model. The validation set served as an independent sample to assess the goodness-of-fit of the predictive model. Variables evaluated included risk for an IPV-related injury (characterized as head,neck and/or facial injury and positive response to a verbal questionnaire), age and race. The outcome variable was self-reported injury etiology (IPV or other). Multiple logistic regression techniques were used to develop a predictive model that was then applied to the validation dataset and the goodness-of-fit measured using the Hosmer- Lemeshow statistic. Results: The sample was randomized into index (n = 201) and validation (n=104) sets. In the index set, age (OR;.94 p=0.01), race (OR=3.7; p=0.01), and risk for IPV (OR=10.4;p=0.01) were associated with IPV-related injuries. The accuracy of the model was 92%. When applied to the validation dataset, there was excellent agreement between the observed and actual number of women with IPV-related injuries as evidenced by the accuracy, i.e. 93%. No statistically significant differences were noted between the observed and predicted outcomes (p = 0.64, Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic). Conclusions: A predictive model composed of age, race, and risk for IPV may be used to develop a protocol to facilitate the early diagnosis of IPV.
Learning Objectives:
Keywords: Epidemiology, Violence Prevention
Presenting author's disclosure statement:
Any relevant financial relationships? No
The 134th Annual Meeting & Exposition (November 4-8, 2006) of APHA