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APHA Scientific Session and Event Listing

Recorded presentation

Haider R. Mannan and Matthew Knuiman, Professor. School of Population Health, University of Western Australia, WA 6009, Nedlands, Australia, (61)(08)6488 1271, hmannan@meddent.uwa.edu.au

In Australia, coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), together known as coronary artery revascularisation procedures (CARPs) are very common. Because the optimum level of such procedures is uncertain at the population level, we develop an extension of the CHD policy model and then apply it to the Western Australian population, for predicting and forecasting the numbers of CABGs, PCIs, CHD deaths and CHD incidence for different age and sex groups. The Western Australian population is chosen because within Australia only the Western Australian health system allows identification and linkage of records pertaining to single individuals regarding outcomes such as re-admission to hospital for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) or a repeat CARP following an initial CARP. Using the smoothed annual estimates of conditional transition probabilities, the initial distribution of history categories and the WA population for the baseline year, we estimate the numbers of CARPs, CHD deaths and CHD incidence over 1990-94 and 1995-99 for different age and sex groups by Markov Monte Carlo simulation. Our results closely estimate the actual counts for the respective events. Using data for available years (1990-2000) we show that our Markov simulation model based on both average and linearly extrapolated transition probabilities can project the counts for the respective events in the WA population very well provided there has not been any substantial change in the trends for CABGs and PCIs or major CHD risk factors or medication for CHD over the study period.

Learning Objectives:

• The participants are expected to acquire knowledge of modelling chronic disease incidence/mortality and uptake of health services usage using linked data.

Keywords: Biostatistics,

Presenting author's disclosure statement:

Any relevant financial relationships? No

Recorded presentation